论文标题：Chinese Trade Price and Yuan's Valuation

　　发表时间：2019

　　论文所有作者：Yichen Gao, Li Gan, Qi Li

　　期刊名及所属分类：The World Economy(国际B)

　　英文摘要：This paper studies how the major economic events would have affected Chinese yuan's nominal exchange rate against US dollar from 1989 to 2013. The traditional average treatment effect estimation methods cannot be used to consistently estimate yuan's pegged exchange rate. We develop a new estimation strategy by combining a novel panel data method (proposed by Hisao, Ching and Wan) and the purchasing power parity theory. Based on this new estimation strategy, we find that during the period of pegging to US dollar, Chinese yuan were undervalued. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the pegged exchange rate regime starting from January 1994 made the yuan undervalued by 2.62%. China's accession to WTO caused yuan undervalued by 36.60%. After the reform of Chinese exchange rate policy in July 2005, the undervaluation of the yuan was reduced to only 0.76%. Yuan was undervalued again by 20.43% because of 2008 China's economy stimulus package. The policy reform in June 2010 made yuan overvalued by 14.40%. We conclude that Chinese fixed exchange rate policy indeed undervalued the yuan, especially after its accession to WTO . The recent reforms of Chinese exchange rate policy made progresses in re‐evaluating the yuan.

　　中文摘要：本文研究了1989 - 2013年重大经济事件对人民币对美元名义汇率的影响。传统的平均处理效果估计方法不能对人民币钉住汇率进行一致的估计。本文结合Hisao、Ching和Wan提出的面板数据方法和购买力平价理论，提出了一种新的估计策略。基于这一新的估计策略，我们发现人民币在盯住美元期间被低估。在1997年亚洲金融危机之前，从1994年1月开始实行钉住汇率制，使人民币被低估了2.62%。中国加入WTO后，人民币被低估了36.60%。2005年7月中国汇率政策改革后，人民币汇率低估仅为0.76%。由于2008年中国的经济刺激计划，人民币再次被低估了20.43%。2010年6月的政策改革使人民币被高估了14.40%。我们的结论是，中国的固定汇率政策确实低估了人民币，特别是在中国加入WTO之后。最近中国汇率政策的改革在重新评估人民币方面取得了进展。