论文标题：Dynamic Responses Of Real Output To Financial Spread 

　　发表时间：2019

　　论文所有作者：Yu-Fan Huang

　　期刊名及所属分类：International Review of Economics & Finance(国际B)

　　英文摘要：In this paper, we find that a positive term spread shock permanently increases real output in that the long-term trend rises. The mechanism is likely through the strong association between term spread shocks and total factor productivity news shocks. A positive credit spread shock could reflect heightening default risk and tightening credit supply, and both factors can lead to fewer new investment projects and damage the long-run economic capacity. We find that for credit spread shocks representing tightening credit supply conditions, the permanent effect is significant in a counterfactual case in which the public forecasts future short rates without considering credit spread. This finding suggests that the central bank's commitment to provide liquidity is important to prevent permanent output loss due to a shortage of credit.

　　中文摘要：本文发现，当长期趋势上升时，正的项差冲击会永久增加实际产出。这一机制可能是通过长期价差冲击和全要素生产率新闻冲击之间的强烈关联实现的。积极的信贷利差冲击可能反映违约风险上升和信贷供应收紧，而这两个因素都可能导致新投资项目减少，损害长期经济产能。我们发现，对于代表紧缩信贷供应条件的信贷价差冲击，在公众预测未来短期利率而不考虑信贷价差的反事实情况下，其永久效应是显著的。这一发现表明，央行提供流动性的承诺对于防止因信贷短缺而造成的永久性产出损失非常重要。