论文标题：How Does Capital Control Spur Economic Growth?

　　发表时间：2019

　　论文所有作者：Zongye Huang, Yu You

　　期刊名及所属分类：The World Economy(国际B)

　　英文摘要：This paper provides a conceptual and empirical framework for evaluating the effect of capital controls on long‐term economic growth. In a small open economy which relies on successful investment projects to provide capital goods, taking out short‐term loans has two contradictory impacts: (i) it reduces the interest costs of financing investment projects; and (ii) it also leads to larger asset losses in the scenario of short‐term debt run. In this work, we hypothesise that private financing decisions made by domestic investors are distorted towards excessive risk‐taking, leading to ineffective capital formation. Thus, capital control policies, particularly regulations on short‐term loans, can be socially beneficial as they alter the debt composition, promote capital formation and achieve a higher output level. Using a panel data set covering 77 countries from 1995 to 2009, we employ a system generalised method of moments ( GMM ) estimator to sequentially test three hypotheses and find strong empirical evidence that supports our theory.

　　中文摘要：本文为评估资本管制对长期经济增长的影响提供了一个概念和经验框架。在一个小型开放经济体中，依靠成功的投资项目来提供资本货物，获得短期贷款有两个相互矛盾的影响:(1)它降低了投资项目融资的利息成本;(二)在短期债务运行的情况下，它还会导致更大的资产损失。在本研究中，我们假设国内投资者的私人融资决策被扭曲为过度承担风险，导致无效的资本形成。因此，资本控制政策，特别是对短期贷款的规定，可以对社会有益，因为它们改变了债务构成，促进资本形成，并实现更高的产出水平。利用1995年至2009年77个国家的面板数据集，采用系统广义矩估计方法(GMM)对三个假设进行了序列检验，发现了强有力的实证证据支持我们的理论。