论文标题：Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO2 Emission Intensity in China

　　发表时间：2019

　　论文所有作者：Li L, Tang L, Zhang J. 

　　期刊名及所属分类：Energies(国际SSCI or SCI)

　　英文摘要：A coupled structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and sensitivity analysis approach is developed to explore the drivers of China’s CO2 emission intensity at both general and sectoral levels and from both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives. Two steps are involved—structural decomposition and sensitivity analysis. First, the popular factor decomposition method, SDA, is implemented to identify which drivers “have” made the largest contribution to emission intensity changes. Second, an emerging ex-ante approach, sensitivity analysis, is introduced to answer how and to what extent such drivers “will” influence future emission intensity at a sectoral level. Based on China’s input-output tables for 1997–2012, the empirical study provides a hotspot map of China’s energy system. (1) Direct-emission coefficient and technology coefficient are observed as the top two overall drivers. (2) For the former, reducing direct-emission coefficient in an emission-intensity sector (e.g., electricity and heat sectors) by 1% will mitigate China’s total emission intensity by at least 0.05%. (3) For the latter, future emission intensity is super-sensitive to direct transactions in emission-intensity sectors (particularly the chemical industry with elasticities up to 0.82%).

　　中文摘要：本文采用耦合结构分解分析(SDA)和敏感性分析方法，分别从事后和事前两个层面探讨了中国二氧化碳排放强度的驱动因素。其中包括结构分解和灵敏度分析两个步骤。首先，采用流行的因子分解方法SDA来识别哪些驱动因素对排放强度变化的“贡献”最大。其次，引入了一种新兴的事前方法——敏感性分析，以回答这些驱动因素如何以及在多大程度上“将”影响未来行业层面的排放强度。基于1997-2012年中国的投入产出表，实证研究给出了中国能源系统的热点图。(1)直接排放系数和技术系数在总体驱动因素中居前两位。(2)对于前者，降低排放强度部门(如电力和热力部门)的直接排放系数1%，可使中国的总排放强度至少减少0.05%。(3)未来排放强度对排放强度部门(尤其是弹性高达0.82%的化工行业)的直接交易极为敏感。