论文标题：Population Structure and housing prices: evidence from Chinese provincial panel data

　　发表时间：2019

　　论文所有作者：Changkyu Choi,Hojin Jung,苏立

　　期刊名及所属分类：Emerging Markets of Finance and Trade(国际其他)

　　英文摘要：This study analyzes the relationship between the proportion of the economically active population aged 15–64 to total population and housing prices. A panel of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014 is used in our analysis. We find empirical evidence that the impact of the population structure on housing-price growth increases as the population growth rates rise. This observation suggests that, to understand provincial housing price movements in China, one should consider the ratio of working-age population to total population in a province. The main policy implication is that Chinese policymakers need to ensure a moderated population growth to effectively promote stability in housing prices and the economy.

　　中文摘要：本研究分析了15-64岁经济活跃人口占总人口的比例与房价的关系。本文采用中国31个省份2002 - 2014年的数据进行分析。我们发现，人口结构对房价增长的影响随着人口增长率的增加而增加。这一观察结果表明，要了解中国各省份的房价变动情况，就应该考虑一个省份的劳动年龄人口与总人口的比例。主要的政策含义是，中国决策者需要确保适度的人口增长，以有效促进房价和经济的稳定。