论文标题：Federal Reserve Policy after the Zero Lower Bound: An Indirect Inference Approach

　　发表时间：2020

　　论文所有作者：Lealand Morin, Ying Shang

　　期刊名及所属分类：Empirical Economics(国际B)

　　英文摘要：Regardless of whether the federal funds target rate has lifted off from the zero lower bound, the historical record of interest rates will be forever marred by the lack of variation in the aftermath of the great recession. This paper employs a method of indirect inference to analyze the interplay between unemployment rates, leading indicators and interest rates in an environment with near-zero interest rates. This method is used to estimate a decision tree for state-dependent Federal Reserve policy to estimate an alternative target rate series similar to those predicted by a shadow rate model.

　　中文摘要：无论联邦基金目标利率是否已经从零利率下限上升，利率的历史记录都将因大衰退后缺乏变化而永远受损。本文采用间接推理的方法，分析了在利率接近零的环境下，失业率、领先指标和利率之间的相互作用。这个方法被用来估计一个决策树的国家依赖的联邦储备政策估计一个替代目标利率序列类似于那些预测的影子利率模型。