论文标题：The effect of exports on labor share: A semiparametric approach using Chinese manufacturing panel data

　　发表时间：2021

　　论文所有作者：Jinjing Tian, Taining Wang, Joshua Hall

　　期刊名及所属分类：The World Economy(国际B)

　　英文摘要：We distinguish the effects of export on labor share into a stand‐alone direct effect and indirect effects, which alter the marginal impact of three key determinants of labor share found in the literature. While the direct effect of export has been extensively studied, the potential indirect effects remain unexplored. We investigate both effects of exports using micro‐level Chinese firm‐level data from 1998‐2007. We employ a fixed‐effect varying coefficient model to reveal the potential nonlinearity of the effects of exports while alleviating the risk of model mis‐specification. Our model is estimated by a spline‐backfitted kernel estimator, which is more efficient and computationally attractive than alternative estimators. We find that while exports directly increase labor share as expected, it declines labor share indirectly through intensifying the negative marginal impact of firms’ capital intensity, monopoly power, and capital‐augmented technological progress on labor share. As a result, the net effect of exports is not beneficial to labor’s share of income, and varies in magnitude across firm characteristics, regions, and time periods.

　　中文摘要：们将出口对劳动收入占比的影响区分为独立的直接影响而非间接影响，从而改变文献中发现的劳动收入占比的三个关键决定因素的边际影响。虽然出口的直接影响已被广泛研究，但潜在的间接影响仍未被探讨。本文利用1998-2007年中国企业微观层面的数据，研究了出口的两种影响。我们采用一个固定效应变系数模型来揭示出口影响潜在的非线性，同时减轻模型错误的风险。我们的模型是由样条反拟合核估计器估计的，这是更有效率和计算吸引力的替代估计器。我们发现，出口在像预期那样直接提高劳动收入占比的同时，通过强化企业资本强度、垄断力量和资本增强型技术进步对劳动收入占比的负边际影响，间接降低劳动收入占比。因此，出口的净效应不利于劳动收入的占比，并且在企业特征、地区和时间段的大小上有所不同。