研究生workshop由首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院主办。主要内容：一是研究生报告前沿或经典文献，二是研究生报告自己的研究或研究设想。论坛宗旨是：为学院师生搭建一个学术交流平台，营造浓厚学术氛围；通过对经典论著或前沿文献的研讨，拓宽研究生的理论视野，提升研究生的前沿方法运用能力，帮助研究生提高论文写作质量。

本期workshop

 

第二组报告人：崔同玮，博士二年级

导师：牛毅

报告题目：《The Production Function for Housing: Evidence from France》, Journal of Political Economy, 2021.

摘要：

We propose a new nonparametric approach to estimate the production function for housing. Our estimation treats output as a latent variable and relies on a first-order condition for profit maximization combined with a zero-profit condition. More desirable locations command higher land prices and, in turn, more capital to build houses. For parcels of a given size, we compute housing production by summing across the marginal products of capital. For newly built single-family homes in France, the production function for housing is close to constant returns and is well, though not perfectly, approximated by a Cobb-Douglas function with a capital elasticity of 0.65.

 

 

报告人：刘杨，博士一年级

导师：牛毅

报告题目：《Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500》, International Economic Review, 2015.

摘要：

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long historical time series. The method is a generalized version of the sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test of Phillips et al. (“Explosive behavior in the 1990s NASDAQ: When did exuberance escalate asset values?” International Economic Review 52 (2011), 201–26; PWY) and delivers a consistent real-time date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains when multiple bubbles occur. An empirical application of the methodology is conducted on S&P 500 stock market data over a long historical period from January 1871 to December 2010. The new approach successfully identifies the well-known historical episodes of exuberance and collapses over this period, whereas the strategy of PWY and a related cumulative sum (CUSUM) dating procedure locate far fewer episodes in the same sample range.