Speaker: Dr. 张潇 (Xiao Zhang)

Title: Export Destination Concentration, Displacement Risk, and Corporate Investment in China

Schedule: Nov 19, Tu 10:00-11:30 AM

Location: 诚明楼 (Chengming Hall), Rm 315

Introduction: 张潇，中央财经大学创新发展学院副教授，硕士研究生导师。在2023年加入中央财经大学，之前工作于南开大学。张潇的主要研究兴趣广泛涉及公司金融，资产定价，国际贸易等。他的研究成果已发表在许多主流金融和统计期刊上比如 Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Corproate Finance等。主持、参与多项国家级、省部级项目，2024年评选为中央财经大学“新苗学者”。

Abstract: This paper investigates how export destination concentration affects exporters’ domestic capital investments. Using a large sample of Chinese export firms, we find strong evidence that firms invest less when destinations are more concentrated. The causal relationship is further confirmed by a natural experiment related to the 2004 European Union expansion. We show that export firms with more concentrated destinations are less responsive to investment opportunities and behave more precautionarily. The negative effect of destination concentration is more pronounced when the firm is more financially constrained, in more competitive industries, and holding more irreversible assets. Our results are robust with alternative measures of destination concentration, alternative regression methods, and alternative samples. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of understanding the global supply chain when studying investment decisions.