Title：The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950–2015       

　　Schedule: April 21, TH 10-11:30 AM

　　Location: 腾讯会议 748 816 847

　　Abstract:This paper evaluates the welfare effects of GATT/WTO-induced reductions in tariffs, variable and fixed trade costs, based on identified direct effects of membership indicators on trade flows via nonparametric matching estimators. The identification does not require the use of tariff data, which permits a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO for a long panel since its inception (1950–2015) of as many as 180 economies. The results indicate substantial (but highly dispersed) welfare gains across members of different development stages and increasing welfare losses of nonmembers in later decades by staying outside the system. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to model specifications, parameter values, and matching estimations are provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on cross-country income disparity, its complementary with preferential trade agreements, and the welfare impacts of China’s WTO entry on the other economies.

　　Introduction:金威, 南开大学经济学院助理教授。于2018年毕业于新加坡管理大学，获得经济学博士学位。金威老师研究领域为国际贸易，论文已发表于 Management Science  等国际期刊。