Title：Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

　　　　Schedule: Oct 26, Wed 1:30-3:00 PM

　　　 Location: 腾讯会议 147 568 724

　　　　Abstract：We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies in- dicate that real GDP growth falls by around two percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unem- ployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative initial effects of pandemics and bounce-back are economically contagious through international trade. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in economies with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic.

　　　Introduction：马畅，复旦大学泛海国际金融学院金融学副教授。他曾在芬兰央行博飞研究部（BOFIT）短期访问，并在国际货币基金组织（IMF）实习。

　　　马畅教授的主要研究领域为国际金融、宏观经济学和宏观审慎性政策等。他的论文发表在 Review of Financial Studies 和 Journal of International Economics 等国际顶级学术期刊，并被《华尔街日报》，联合国工业发展组织，VoxEU 和 VoxChina等国际主流媒体和智库研究广泛报道。另外，马畅教授曾获得2019年上海市浦江人才、2019和2020年泛海国际金融学院优秀研究奖、2020年浦山世界经济学优秀论文奖、2020年国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目。

　　　马畅教授于2018年获得约翰霍普金斯大学经济学博士学位，2017年获得约翰霍普金斯大学经济学硕士学位，2012年获得中国人民大学金融学硕士学位，2009年获得南开大学经济学学士学位。