学术报告会——朱家华(Jiahua Zhu)
时间: 2022-12-05 12:00:00
Speaker:朱家华 (Jiahua Zhu)
Title:Predicting the Unpredictable: New Experimental Evidence on Forecasting Random Walks
Schedule: Dec 7, Wed 1:30-3 PM
Location: 腾讯会议 348 837 963
Introduction:
Jiahua Zhu, Assistant Professor at Ma Yin Chu School of Economics, Tianjin University, China. Jiahua received a PhD in Economics in the School of Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. Her research interest is behavioral and experimental economics, with a specific interest in experimental finance. Her recent works appear in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization and Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Abstract:
We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfield and Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully replicate the experimental findings in BH that subjects are less trend-chasing when there are more reversals in random walk times series. We do not find evidence that subjects overreact less to the trend when there are more reversals in the stock price prediction task. Our subjects also appear to use other variables such as autocorrelation coefficient, amplitude and volatility as measures of predictability. However, as random walk theory predicts, relying on apparent patterns in past data does not improve their prediction accuracy.