Speaker：尹鹏辉 (Penghui Yin)

　　Title：Attention, expectation updating, and subjective models of the macroeconomy

　　Schedule: March 17, Fri 1:30-3:00 PM

　　Location: RM 308，诚明楼（Chengming Hall）

　　Introduction：尹鹏辉, 法兰克福大学经济学博士，山东大学经济学院助理教授。主要研究宏观经济学，信息经济学和家庭金融。目前所做的研究是行为宏观经济学：结合行为经济学探讨消费者的消费、储蓄和投资行为。已有文章发表在著名国际期刊《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》。

　　Abstract：An online survey is implemented to study the role of attention allocation in macroeconomic expectation formation upon information provision. Exogenous variation in participants’ subjective expectations is created by providing different professional forecasters’ assessments of future economic conditions as information treatment. We

　　find that participants paying attention to inflation respond to information shock about inflation by significantly updating their inflation expectations, while participants paying no attention to inflation respond little. Change in inflation expectation contributes to change in macroeconomic beliefs and anticipated consumption-investment decisions. We also find evidence that respondents elicit affect-based unemployment expectation, which explains the co-movement of inflation and unemployment survey expectations. Our results demonstrate the roles of attention allocation and affect in expectation formation.