Speaker: Dr. Haozhou Tang

Title: Rolled-over Credit Cycles

Schedule: Oct 11, Wed 1:30-2:30 PM

Location: 诚明楼 (Chengming Hall）RM 315

 

Introduction:汤皓州博士，东北财经大学高等经济研究院助理教授。2017年获得庞培法布拉大学经济学博士学位，导师为Alberto Martin教授和Jaume Ventura教授。加入东北财经大学前，他曾在墨西哥央行（2017—2022）工作。

汤皓州博士的研究主要聚焦于经济周期和金融市场。目前，他主要研究以下两个问题：（1）股票市场和债券市场中的泡沫如何影响企业的进入/退出决策和投资决策；（2）泡沫怎样通过企业决策影响经济周期的传播。

 

Abstract: Canonical macroeconomic and financial models require credit to be equal to its fundamental component, i.e., the net present value of the net flows to creditors. According to this conventional view, credit booms are expected to precede increased flows to creditors. However, data suggests the opposite. To rationalize the novel empirical findings, we develop a model with financial frictions and heterogeneous firms, allowing firms to roll over a fraction of credits indefinitely. We show that an increase in indefinite rollover credit raises the aggregate credit and output while depressing the credit's fundamental component through firms' precautionary savings.