题目：Rethinking the Balassa Samuelson Effect: Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment

时间：11月20日中午

地点：诚明楼315会议室

主讲人：陈杲

内容概述: This paper documents large and persistent real exchange rate deviations from the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and a failure of fast growth countries to appreciate based on a country level panel dataset. This paper argues that with capital controls, less capital flows into countries with faster economic growth, and there is a slower appreciation of the real exchange rate. My results show that capital controls help explain the real exchange rate misalignment. Moreover, this paper finds that capital control policy is effective on undervaluing the real exchange rate. For countries with faster economic growth, this paper finds that fixing the nominal exchange rate alone does not slow down the real appreciation. However, capital control policy is effective at keeping the real exchange rate undervalued, and allow countries to stay substantially undervalued for a considerable period of time.

题目：重思巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应：资本管制与实际汇率偏差

内容概述: 本文记录了基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应上存在的巨大且持续的实际汇率偏差，以及基于国家级面板数据的快速增长国家实际汇率未能升值这些事实。本文认为，通过资本管制，流入经济增长较快国家的资本减少，实际汇率升值速度较慢。研究结果表明，资本管制有助于解释实际汇率错位。此外，本文发现资本管制政策对保持实际汇率偏低是有效的。对于经济增长较快的国家，本文发现仅固定名义汇率并不能减缓实际汇率的升值。然而，资本管制政策在保持实际汇率被低估方面是有效的，并允许各国在相当长的一段时间内保持大幅低估。