题目：Monetary Policy Autonomy: A New Identification Method and Cross-Country Evidence
报告人: 周行 (Assistant Professor, School of Banking & Finance at UIBE)
报告时间：2017年11月29日（周三） 13：00
地点：国际经管学院会议室（诚明楼三层）
主办方：国际经济管理学院

摘要：This paper revisits the definition of monetary policy autonomy and develops a new method to identify autonomy regimes of a set of countries. Compared to the traditional identification approach, which only focuses on the base country interest rate, monetary policy autonomy discussed in this paper is jointly determined by how the interest rate responds to foreign monetary policy as well as its domestic inflation and real GDP. Using a Bayesian Markov Switching model for the monetary policy function, I estimate policy responses in two regimes, and obtain measures of monetary policy autonomy in the estimation process. Testing the method with case studies and simulated data demonstrates the robustness of the approach under different scenarios. Applying the method to the data of a set of advanced countries, I find monetary policy autonomy decreases when exchange rate is fixed or capital control is loosened, which is consistent with the open economy trilemma.

摘要：这篇文章重新思考货币政策的自主性并发展出新的认定方法。和传统的的认定方法相比，本文利用利率对国外货币政策、国内通膨和实际产出的反应来认定货币政策的自主性。我使用贝叶斯方法估计货币政策函数，找出政策反应的两个状态，并测定货币政策的自主性。应用在已开发国家，我发现当汇率是固定的且资本控制较松散，货币政策的自主性会下降。