Title：Productivity benefits of urban transportation megaprojects: A general equilibrium analysis of «Grand Paris Express»

　　Schedule：June 16, Wed 12:00-1:00 PM

　　Location: Rm 317 in Chengming Hall  (诚明楼) or Online at 腾讯会议-545 861 196

　　Abstract:Grand Paris Express», a fast rail transit megaproject planned for 2035, is designed to decongest the City of Paris by circumferentially linking its inner suburbs. A general equilibrium model of travel, labor, real estate and output markets is used to assess the project. The region’s spatial distribution of jobs and residences are endogenous in the model. The megaproject reduces public transit travel times, alleviates road congestion and imparts a Marshallian externality on production. This reduces the prices of the region’s goods benefitting the region’s consumers and those who import from the region. In the short run, nominal prices, wages, rents and income and sales tax revenues fall but wages and rents adjusted by the output price, and outputs rise. In the long run, regional population grows and output rises more. Although Pigouvian tolls on road congestion dent nominal incomes and purchasing power, the revenue from tolls well exceeds the project’s direct cost. Tolling recoups 81% of the direct cost plus losses from public revenues in the short run; 66% in the long run. Social welfare gains of the megaproject are 1.25% of the region’s average income in the short run, 0.55% with population increase in the long run; falling to 1.07% with congestion tolls in the short run, and rising to 1.42% with congestion tolls in the long run. 

标题：城市交通大型项目的生产力效益：《大巴黎快线》的一般均衡分析

摘要：《大巴黎快线》是一个计划于 2035 年建成的大型快速轨道交通项目，旨在通过环绕内郊区来缓解巴黎市的拥堵。本文使用旅行、劳动力、房地产和产出市场的一般均衡模型来评估该项目，并以地区的就业和居住空间分布在模型中是内生因素。该大型项目减少了公共交通出行时间，缓解了道路拥堵，并为生产带来了马歇尔式的外部性。这降低了该地区商品的价格，使该地区的消费者和从该地区进口的人受益。在短期内，名义价格、工资、租金以及所得税和销售税收入下降，但工资和租金受产出价格调整，产出上升。从长远来看，区域人口增长和产出增加更多。虽然 庇古税对道路拥堵的收费会削弱名义收入和购买力，但收费收入远远超过了项目的直接成本。收费在短期内弥补了81% 的直接成本加上公共收入的损失；而从长远来看，该对应数据为66%。《大巴黎快线》这一特大工程短期社会福利收益为地区平均收入的1.25%，随着人口的增加，该长期收入为0.55%，短期内随着拥堵费下降至该指标降至1.07%，长期内随着拥堵费上升至1.42%。